The network of farms keeping voluntary accounts has been providing comprehensive data on the income situation of agriculture and forestry in Austria for many years. However, ongoing methodological changes and adjustments to the framework conditions make it difficult to compare the annually collected data over time. Significant innovations are, for example, the conversion of the farm classification based on standard gross margin (SGM) to standard output (SO) with the 2010 agricultural structure survey (AS) and the change in the farm size levels in the distribution plan valid since 2016. In addition, there are breaks in the methodology, such as the recalculation of the SO coefficient as an average of the last five years for each agricultural structure survey, with a reclassification of the farms based on this and a recalculation of the farm weights. Changes over time in the scope of the survey and in the definition of some indicators or the introduction of new indicators also pose a challenge.
The aim of the project was to develop a methodology for the production of time series of extrapolated ratios of the accounting farm data. This should enable comparisons over the years with regard to certain business developments. In a further step, the resulting panel data set is to be used for the analysis of certain agricultural economic questions, such as the question of the extent and causes of income fluctuations. Due to comprehensive changes in the determination and coding of indicators in 2003, a comparison with previous years is not possible. The aim is therefore to examine the temporal linkage of the key figures for the years 2003 to 2016 and, as far as possible and reasonable on the basis of the available data, to carry it out.
The software required for the back calculation has been completed.
Within the framework of the AWI/75/87 project (Classification of agricultural holdings for the presentation of the economic situation of agriculture), the standard output coefficients of the years 2002 to 2013 were calculated. Subsequently, on the basis of the SO, the classification of the accounting holdings of the years 2003 to 2015 as well as the AS holdings in this period (2005, 2007, 2010 and 2013) was carried out according to their farm size and farm type.
For the AS holdings and the returning holdings of these years, distributions were calculated on the basis of the classifications carried out according to the current distribution plan and the farm weights required for the projections were determined.
Based on this preliminary work, the farm and income data published annually in the standard wing of the Green Report were extrapolated for the years 2010 to 2015, taking into account the changes and additions decided by the Working Group on Indicators and in accordance with the current distribution plan for the most important evaluation numbers (AWNRs), and presented to the Section 7 Commission and the National Committee.
Also for the years 2010 to 2015, the characteristic numbers appearing in the annual projections were checked for their suitability for back-calculation and, as far as possible, calculated for all evaluation numbers necessary from today's perspective.
Analyses of the results for the years 2010 to 2015 were presented in Copenhagen in 2017 at the annual Pacioli Workshop on the collection and use off arm level data for policy analysis, research and extension.
Classifications based on the SO are already available for the years 2003 to 2009. Since the selection of returning holdings for this sample was originally made on the basis of a dispersion plan according to SDB and there have been far-reaching changes to the support system in the course of the 2003 agricultural reform, detailed analyses are still necessary in order to determine the usefulness and extent of linking the data for this period with the subsequent years, especially with regard to the resulting income results.
In the area of key figures, too, it still needs to be examined in detail which characteristics in the period 2003 to 2009 are comparable with the subsequent years in terms of survey scope and definition.
The data for 2016 will also be integrated into the panel data set once the 2016 agricultural structure survey is available.
The back-calculated data will grow successively in terms of period, key figures and AWNRs and thus represent a good data basis for analyses of agricultural economic issues. Within the framework of this project, the extent and causes of income fluctuations are to be investigated on the basis of this panel data set. The data set can also be used for other projects, e.g. the project AWI/194/04 ("Model System").
Project start: January 2016
End of project: December 2018
