BAB 001/76: Econometric models of the Austrian pig and cattle market

Objective

Agricultural policy, administration and the EU institutions (EU Regulation 1165/2008) require information on the development of agricultural markets in order to fulfill their legal duties. For this reason, the Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics and Mountain Farming has been producing forecasts on the supply of pigs and cattle for over 30 years. The forecasts were also carried out in 2021 using a regression model based on livestock census data. This method of market forecasting will continue to be used in 2024.

The recording of the cattle population is based on Regulation (EC) No. 1165/2008 on livestock and meat statistics. This was implemented nationally by Ordinance Federal Law Gazette II No. 163/2012 of the Federal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management. The results for the cattle population are derived from the intersection of an evaluation of the central cattle database of Agrarmarkt Austria with data from Rinderzucht Austria, whereby the detailed processing was carried out by Statistics Austria.
With the approval of EUROSTAT, the three-yearly census rhythm in the pig sector was changed to two censuses per year (June 1, December 1). Since then, the forecasts have been based on the age updates from the two annual pig population surveys on June 1 and December 1, whereby the respondent-based sample survey of the pig population for the June 1 reference date was replaced by a population calculation using a regression model based on the data from the VIS April survey at the beginning of 2012. The regression coefficients and parameters used are also continuously adjusted taking this change into account.

Work 2024

Based on the livestock surveys in December 2023 and June 2024, production forecasts are drawn up for cattle and pig production (gross own production, expressed in number of head). The accuracy of the forecast models is reviewed on an ongoing basis and the model parameters are adjusted accordingly.